WALLY'S WINTER WEATHER PAGE 2018-19

CLICK HERE for official (National Weather Service) forecast.

February 19, 2018 - 7:45 am

CHANCE OF SNOW:

Other Winter Precip (Ice)

80%
TODAY-TONIGHT
90%
TODAY-TONIGHT
20%
TOMORROW
100%
TOMORROW
10%
48-72 Hrs.   
30%
48-72 Hrs.
0%
3-5 Days 
0%
3-5 Days
30%
6-10 Days   
10%
6-10 Days
CHANCE OF ANY SNOW IN
THE NEXT TWO WEEKS
100%

S = snow showers    F = snow flurries

A TRUE MIX FOR THIS STORM

Not much time this morning. Just an update to say, prepare for a snowy/icy mix tonight and tomorrow. I do have some concern that this could be on the edge of an ice storm. What may save us is that it may turn out more sleet than freezing/glazing rain. Sleet often isn't a huge problem, UNLESS is snows first, which is what we get. So it may all turn out to be a snowy/icy sludge on the ground and a bit on the roads, even though the snowfall itself isn't supposed to be deep.

We WILL get wintry precip. The mix is not perfectly known (at our "on the edge" part of VA), but it will be a mess.

Be careful.

Check back!

See latest newer climate note below.

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BTW - My newest article in the Roanoke Times op-ed section can be found here:
https://www.roanoke.com/opinion/commentary/mayo-trouble-for-climate-alarmists-are-we-on-the-same/article_09f47341-4b17-5a06-80bc-cbfddaf9495a.html

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This forecast is given as is ... with no warranty of any kind. It is for entertainment purposes only. Any action regarding life or property should be contingent on the official forecast of the National Weather Service, an agency of the U.S. Government. Only the National Weather Service is the source of official forecasts ... not the Weather Channel, Accuweather, Weatherbug, WSI [which many TV stations use] or any other private group.

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CLIMATE NOTE - Kinda for fun. Just givin' some facts.

Well, how are we running? That is, what is our GLOBAL temperature compared to normal right now? Take a look:


9 

Yeah, there is a big hot orange area over us, but GLOBALLY the anomaly (departure from normal) is a paltry .081 degree below normal (see top right). Hardly seems like global warming out of control. That's not even one tenth of one degree!! As you can see at bottom, this data (as mapped) comes from NCEP, The National Center for Environmental Prediction, basically the main center of the National Weather Service of NOAA (National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration). That means our Federal Government. It actually slid a little below the zero line last summer. And, it goes up and down, but the larger trend since 2015 (when it DID hit 1.5 degrees above) is that we've been cooling. Sun watchers of astronomy strongly suggest that our recently emerging solar minimum is VERY pronounced, with NO sunspots for a LONG time, so that, we may be heading into a temperature cold period similar to the Maunder Minimum of the middle ages, which had a similar solar level. It would take some time, but those guys are quite convinced its coming. More on that later.

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You can send any comments to wmayo444@cox.net or see me!

 
*Models consulted, sometimes used as abbreviated:
GFS -  Global Forecast System - Main US-ran global model - longest range (to 16 days). Recently updated with much higher resolution.
NAM + Parallel NAM -  North America Mesoscale - Regional, not global model.
NAM/WRF + Parallel - High res model (parallel is even higher res)
ECMWF - European model, including ensembles (EPS) and weeklies, etc., 
UKMET - British model
NAVGEM - New Navy model (replaced NOGAPS, older one)
RAP - Rapid Refresh Model (short term run hourly, covers up to 21 hours now)
HRRR + experimental HRRRX - High Res Rapid Refresh (very high zoom, updated every hour, also for limited number of hours projection)
DGEX - an acronym for the Downscaled GFS with Eta Extension.  DGEX has been developed as an interim solution to providing high-resolution forecast guidance for populating the digital forecast database at extended forecast projections.  It is produced by running the full 12-km, 60 level, Eta model from forecast hour 78 to forecast hour 192 using lateral boundary conditions
Canadian GEM and RGEM - Global and regional models. Plus CanSIPs monthlies.
Canadian  HRDPS - very local high res model
SREF - Short Range Ensembles
NDFD - National Digital Forecat Database
FIM9 - New experimental US model using hex high res grid. Supposed to replace the GFS eventually.
There are other models such as the Brazilian, German, French, and Japanese (JMA)
I also consult CFSv2 (Climate Forecasting System) for long range
I do not have BUFKIT.
*Other abbreviations used:
WX - Weather
NCEP - National Center for Environmental Prediction (Nat'l Headquarters of the Nat'l Weather Service)
HPC - Hydrological Prediction Center (National prediction office of NWS)
CONUS - Continental US
PCPN - Precipitation
SYS - System
NE - northeast, SE - southeast, NNW north-north-west, etc.
NAO - North Atlantic Oscillation (negative suggests cold east US)
AO - Arctic Oscillation (negative suggests cold east US)
PNA - Pacific North-Atlantic Oscillation (positive suggests stormier east)
EPO - Eastern Pacific Oscillation
WPO - Western Pacific Oscillation
MJO - Madden-Julian Oscillation (a cycle of precip-temps based on certain trade winds/currents). There are eight phases. Some of the eight may be of different effect, depending on season.
SOI - Southern Oscillation Index
QBO - Quasi-Biennial Oscillation

GENERAL CURRENT SNOWFALL MAPS:
CLICK HERE for graphic of north Mid-Atlantic snowdepth
CLICK HERE for general USA snowdepth (Air Force)
CLICK for 1-day snow accumulation for Virginia  NC   WV
CLICK for snowdepth for Virginia  NC  WV
CLICK for month to date snowfall for VIRGINIA
CLICK for season to date snowfall for VIRGINIA

DICLAIMER AND COMMENT: This page is just for fun, and my forecast, may vary from the National Weather Service by quite a bit a times. There is no liability assumed for anything resulting from this page. Do not use this page to plan anything. Refer to official National Weather Service forecasts for responsible action. I studied some meteorology at The Florida State University School of Meteorology and do study various models and internal weather service discussions, and was fully trained in surface weather observation as an ASOS augmenter in preparation for working at a surface weather station. In any case, any forecast on this page which is more than 8-12 hours old should be disregarded as out-of-date. If you have any comments, leave me e-mail.

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