WALLY'S WINTER WEATHER PAGE 2018-19

CLICK HERE for official (National Weather Service) forecast.

December 9, 2018 - 9:15 a.m.

CHANCE OF SNOW:

Other Winter Precip

100%
TODAY-TONIGHT
0%
TODAY-TONIGHT
30%
TOMORROW
10%
TOMORROW
0%
48-72 Hrs.   
0%
48-72 Hrs.
0%
3-5 Days 
30%
3-5 Days
0%
6-10 Days   
0%
6-10 Days
CHANCE OF ANY SNOW IN
THE NEXT TWO WEEKS
100%

S = snow showers    F = snow flurries

MAJOR WINTER STORM MOVES IN

We have a little over 6"on the ground by 10 a.m.!, and it is snowing rather heavily (at least in south Roanoke). It started as smaller more powderly flakes. But, now nice large snowflakes are falling.

Only on chart at this point. Forecasts now are reflecting the high accumulation numbers I've been touting for days. Official forecast is near a foot of snow, perhaps more. The shorter duration of this event is what is keeping if from being 18+". It should mainly be over by supper or a little after. Had it gone 24 hours like this ... Whew!

Here is the high res NAM, showing 16-24" througout Roanoke County:

2

Here is the Euro for comparison. It shows 11" in city, 13" southward.

3

The newer Canadian very high res model shows 13" -- about right.

5

I'm still going with 9-12" with 8-15" as larger possibilities.

Anyway,
drive carefully...

6

Looking further out -- next precip is about Thursday with a chilly rain or freezing rain briefly overnight.

Stay tuned.

---------------

BTW - My newest article in the Roanoke Times op-ed section can be found here:
https://www.roanoke.com/opinion/commentary/mayo-trouble-for-climate-alarmists-are-we-on-the-same/article_09f47341-4b17-5a06-80bc-cbfddaf9495a.html

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This forecast is given as is ... with no warranty of any kind. It is for entertainment purposes only. Any action regarding life or property should be contingent on the official forecast of the National Weather Service, an agency of the U.S. Government. Only the National Weather Service is the source of official forecasts ... not the Weather Channel, Accuweather, Weatherbug, WSI [which many TV stations use] or any other private group.

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CLIMATE NOTE - Kinda for fun. Just givin' some facts.

THE CHILL OF SOLAR MINIMUM: The sun is entering one of the deepest Solar Minima of the Space Age. Sunspots have been absent for most of 2018, and the sun's ultraviolet output has sharply dropped. New research shows that Earth's upper atmosphere is responding.

"We see a cooling trend," says Martin Mlynczak of NASA's Langley Research Center. "High above Earth's surface near the edge of space, our atmosphere is losing heat energy. If current trends continue, the upper atmosphere could soon set a Space Age record for cold."

UPDATE: Upper atmospheric temps have dropped very dramatically, releasing 10 times the usual heat energy of normal.

This is a portending of global cooling at even lower levels. Even lately, the global surface temperature anomaly has dropped BELOW the zero line twice in the last couple of months. This is after a LONG period of above normal ranging from .4 to 1.5 degrees above normal.

More extensive interesting information coming soon.

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You can send any comments to wmayo444@cox.net or see me!

 
*Models consulted, sometimes used as abbreviated:
GFS -  Global Forecast System - Main US-ran global model - longest range (to 16 days). Recently updated with much higher resolution.
NAM + Parallel NAM -  North America Mesoscale - Regional, not global model.
NAM/WRF + Parallel - High res model (parallel is even higher res)
ECMWF - European model, including ensembles (EPS) and weeklies, etc., 
UKMET - British model
NAVGEM - New Navy model (replaced NOGAPS, older one)
RAP - Rapid Refresh Model (short term run hourly, covers up to 21 hours now)
HRRR + experimental HRRRX - High Res Rapid Refresh (very high zoom, updated every hour, also for limited number of hours projection)
DGEX - an acronym for the Downscaled GFS with Eta Extension.  DGEX has been developed as an interim solution to providing high-resolution forecast guidance for populating the digital forecast database at extended forecast projections.  It is produced by running the full 12-km, 60 level, Eta model from forecast hour 78 to forecast hour 192 using lateral boundary conditions
Canadian GEM and RGEM - Global and regional models. Plus CanSIPs monthlies.
Canadian  HRDPS - very local high res model
SREF - Short Range Ensembles
NDFD - National Digital Forecat Database
FIM9 - New experimental US model using hex high res grid. Supposed to replace the GFS eventually.
There are other models such as the Brazilian, German, French, and Japanese (JMA)
I also consult CFSv2 (Climate Forecasting System) for long range
I do not have BUFKIT.
*Other abbreviations used:
WX - Weather
NCEP - National Center for Environmental Prediction (Nat'l Headquarters of the Nat'l Weather Service)
HPC - Hydrological Prediction Center (National prediction office of NWS)
CONUS - Continental US
PCPN - Precipitation
SYS - System
NE - northeast, SE - southeast, NNW north-north-west, etc.
NAO - North Atlantic Oscillation (negative suggests cold east US)
AO - Arctic Oscillation (negative suggests cold east US)
PNA - Pacific North-Atlantic Oscillation (positive suggests stormier east)
EPO - Eastern Pacific Oscillation
WPO - Western Pacific Oscillation
MJO - Madden-Julian Oscillation (a cycle of precip-temps based on certain trade winds/currents). There are eight phases. Some of the eight may be of different effect, depending on season.
SOI - Southern Oscillation Index
QBO - Quasi-Biennial Oscillation

GENERAL CURRENT SNOWFALL MAPS:
CLICK HERE for graphic of north Mid-Atlantic snowdepth
CLICK HERE for general USA snowdepth (Air Force)
CLICK for 1-day snow accumulation for Virginia  NC   WV
CLICK for snowdepth for Virginia  NC  WV
CLICK for month to date snowfall for VIRGINIA
CLICK for season to date snowfall for VIRGINIA

DICLAIMER AND COMMENT: This page is just for fun, and my forecast, may vary from the National Weather Service by quite a bit a times. There is no liability assumed for anything resulting from this page. Do not use this page to plan anything. Refer to official National Weather Service forecasts for responsible action. I studied some meteorology at The Florida State University School of Meteorology and do study various models and internal weather service discussions, and was fully trained in surface weather observation as an ASOS augmenter in preparation for working at a surface weather station. In any case, any forecast on this page which is more than 8-12 hours old should be disregarded as out-of-date. If you have any comments, leave me e-mail.

To e-mail me click button: 

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