CLICK HERE for official (National Weather Service) forecast.

Saturday - May 27, 2017 -  11:30 am
Certain abbreviations are explained at the bottom of page.


Other Winter Precip

48-72 Hrs.
48-72 Hrs.
3-5 Days
3-5 Days
6-7 Days 
6-7 Days

S = snow showers    F = snow flurries

My forecast for a colder winter did not pan out very well. It was my first miss in a number ofyears. My problem was, that last fall and winter for the first time in the record since weather balloons starting in the late 1950s that measured the temperatures into the stratosphere, the quasi-biennial cycle of tropical stratospheric winds failed to go to an easterly phase as expected. This relates to a wind pattern over the Pacific Ocean. It was SUPPOSED to go from westerly to easterly in flow. It did something very very unusual, and sustained as westerly. Had it changed to as normal and expected to easterly, last winter would ave been very different.

Now, for the summer. Keeping it simple -- June appears to be on the slighly cooler side. July and August should be near normal, but if they vary some, July my be slightly cooler, and August slightly warmer. Precip looks to go rather wet overall. Of course, we may get short periods of hot and dry, but the overall picture should be as I described.

Hurricane threats will be from storms forming closer to the US. A normal to slightly less than normal year for number and intensity of storms. Remember, some years that have few storms can still have a hum-dinger of ONE big storm.

This forecast is given as is ... with no warranty of any kind. It is for entertainment purposes only. Any action regarding life or property should be contingent on the official forecast of the National Weather Service, an agency of the U.S. Government. Only the National Weather Service is the source of official forecasts ... not the Weather Channel, Accuweather, Weatherbug, WSI [which many TV stations use] or any other private group.



CLIMATE NOTE - Kinda for fun. But, let's dig in.

I want you to know that I don't just guess (or hope) in this area. I use and cite strong and well-recognized sources -- from good and true, pure climate scientists. I'm not saying there cannot be alternate views by some good scientists. But, I find great reasoning by ... well, certain giants in the field, and often the ones that are, unfortunately, NOT in the papers/TV. You can skip the footnotes, etc.

I will still deal with the supposed disappearing ice caps soon, but I can hardly sit still when I continue to read articles in the press that so badly distort and ignore data to force the image of run-away global warming, by people who seem to be clueless about very important factors that some climate giants are clearly pointing out. Just bear with me a little, and you'll be stunned.

First, we ARE warmer. Quite a bit right now. Warmer than we have ever been? or should be? Not even close. Take a look:


The far right shows the last orange segment where we are in a warm period, but NOT like the Holocene climate max 4-5 and 6-8 thousand years ago. During those times, the global average temp was at least a full degree (Centigrade, so equals 1.8° Fahrenheit) higher than the 15 degree (59° Fahrenheit) baseline -- all without man's nasty CO2 addition. We are having a hard time averaging .6° C so we could basically double before reaching those historic levels. Our temps now mainly dance below that .8° above normal purple line below. UPDATE: Lately, the lines have sunk to nearer .4 C values (May 27, 2017).


Right now, very noticeable is that our oceans are (in the majority) on the warm side of normal. That the oceans are warming over a longer term is handled nicely in a paper that seems to get no publicity in the world of climate. The late Dr. William Gray's great paper -- http://tropical.atmos.colostate.edu/Includes/Documents/Publications/gray2012.pdf -- not only predicted our current climate but explained why, and how it is NORMAL. Did you know that warmer water (oceans) releases CO2? You mean, an uptick in CO2 lately has to at least account for this? Yes. And everyone should.

Our air is also warmer than normal. Even climate change skeptics see and understand that with no problem. Why are we so warm right now? Could it be that we have concluded a 100-year period of very high solar activity? It's kinda unprecented (the solar level sustained), and is called the "Modern Maximum." As we rapidly drop off into a likely period of a major deep solar sleep, thing are likely to change. And, as badly as climate alarmists understand today's setup, they're really going to miss what's coming.

For one thing we may actually see more hurricanes (during a time of less or no sunspots during a solar minumum). FSU researchers suggest:


But, more important is solar irradience -- the light energy coming in to us. It drops. Oh, not so much in visible light as UV (ultra-violet) energy, solar-storm energy, and cosmic rays. Are we really dropping? The observed trend is VERY clear. So clear that some scientists worry that we may enter a new cold period solar minimum.


You can see, it doesn't take much to change the global temp rather significantly. The Maunder Minimum was terribly cold across the planet. I'll recount stories next article. Meanwhile, the solar peaks are now fading -- well, for a while, maybe decades or more. I (and many good climatologists) do not feel ready to totally buy us going back to a Maunder Minimum level, yet. But, the trend and effects are clear. The degree is the question. In NASA’s David Hathaway’s own words, "cycle 23 has been a cycle like we have not seen in century or more. The irradiance dropped 50% more than recent cycles, the solar wind was at the lowest levels of the satellite age. There were over 800 sunspotless days, well more than double those of the recent cycles. The cycle lasted 3 years longer than cycle 22, longest since cycle 6 that peaked in 1810."

I read articles that throw sand on the value of solar-change impacts on temperatures. Really?
Okay, .1% of light change isn't much. But, looking at all radiation (cited above) along with observational data shows a real impact. The total magnetic flux leaving the sun has increased by a factor of 2.3 since 1901. That's a lot. Two recent studies that have drawn clear connections between solar changes and the Earth’s climate are Soon (2005) ...

Soon, W.H., "Variable Solar Irradiance as a Plausible Agent for Multidecadal Variations in the Arctic-wide Surface Air Temperature Record of the Past 130 Years," Geophysical Research Letters , Vol. 32,doi:10.1029/2005GL023429.
Soon, W.H., Posmentier, E., Baliunas, S.L. (1996), Inference of solar irradiance variability from terrestrial temperature changes 1880-1993: an astrophysical application of the sun-climate relationship. Astrophysical Journal 472, pp 891-902

... and Kärner (2004). Soon (2005 GRL) showed how the arctic temperatures (the arctic of course has no urbanization contamination) correlated with solar irradiance far better than with the greenhouse gases over the last century (see Figure below). For the 10 year running mean of total solar irradiance (TSI) vs Arctic-wide air temperature anomalies (Polyokov).


Solar energy and arctice temps coorelate quite closely in the graph above. So, I just get bemused when some climate folks say, "Ah, the sun just doesn't have much to do with earths climate changes, including todays warmth.

There are other additional reasons for our current warm period, which I'll add later.

Well, our (unusual) warmth is going to fade. We may actually get warmer still for a while, including some record warmth in the scale of brief recent time. But, the writing is on the wall. The sun has tipped his hand. The gaff has been blown, and it's not going to be easy to refute it.

I'm sad about it actually. There are good scientists which suggest that global warming is and always has been VERY GOOD in the main. With warmth, crop areas may have shifted, but with much better overall coverage, it has been good for our planet's people. Clearly, the Mideval warm period brought increased prosperity and population growth (loved hearing The Discovery Channel say that on a special about the middle ages). Going cold will hurt the world.

Final note. Those good scientists just mentioned are getting blasted, sometimes fighting for their career just for even suggesting that warming could be good. Those like Dr. William Happer, a top-class physicist at Princeton University...
... He is Professer Emeritus and holds the title Cyrus Fogg Bracket Professor of Physics. Such vitrolic demonization of him by climate alarmists just has no place in science. He has not been removed, yet, but there are others who are fighting to stay alive in their careers.

(With all this, I will listen to all views in the discussion. Please don't be one of those who go ballistic and horribly condemning with different views, including stopping their ears to even listening to alternative suggestions. The history of science is replete with that action against those who ended up right. Nobody knows who's perfectly right on that which is less than an exact science. We should admit that and go on in open scientific inquiry.)

More soon.


You can send any comments to wmayo444@cox.net or see me!

*Models consulted, sometimes used as abbreviated:
GFS -  Global Forecast System - Main US-ran global model - longest range (to 16 days). Recently updated with much higher resolution.
NAM + Parallel NAM -  North America Mesoscale - Regional, not global model.
NAM/WRF + Parallel - High res model (parallel is even higher res)
ECMWF - European model, including ensembles (EPS) and weeklies, etc., 
UKMET - British model
NAVGEM - New Navy model (replaced NOGAPS, older one)
RAP - Rapid Refresh Model (short term run hourly, covers up to 21 hours now)
HRRR + experimental HRRRX - High Res Rapid Refresh (very high zoom, updated every hour, also for limited number of hours projection)
DGEX - an acronym for the Downscaled GFS with Eta Extension.  DGEX has been developed as an interim solution to providing high-resolution forecast guidance for populating the digital forecast database at extended forecast projections.  It is produced by running the full 12-km, 60 level, Eta model from forecast hour 78 to forecast hour 192 using lateral boundary conditions
Canadian GEM and RGEM - Global and regional models. Plus CanSIPs monthlies.
Canadian  HRDPS - very local high res model
SREF - Short Range Ensembles
NDFD - National Digital Forecat Database
FIM9 - New experimental US model using hex high res grid. Supposed to replace the GFS eventually.
There are other models such as the Brazilian, German, French, and Japanese (JMA)
I also consult CFSv2 (Climate Forecasting System) for long range
I do not have BUFKIT.
*Other abbreviations used:
WX - Weather
NCEP - National Center for Environmental Prediction (Nat'l Headquarters of the Nat'l Weather Service)
HPC - Hydrological Prediction Center (National prediction office of NWS)
CONUS - Continental US
PCPN - Precipitation
SYS - System
NE - northeast, SE - southeast, NNW north-north-west, etc.
NAO - North Atlantic Oscillation (negative suggests cold east US)
AO - Arctic Oscillation (negative suggests cold east US)
PNA - Pacific North-Atlantic Oscillation (positive suggests stormier east)
EPO - Eastern Pacific Oscillation
WPO - Western Pacific Oscillation
MJO - Madden-Julian Oscillation (a cycle of precip-temps based on certain trade winds/currents). There are eight phases. Some of the eight may be of different effect, depending on season.
SOI - Southern Oscillation Index
QBO - Quasi-Biennial Oscillation

CLICK HERE for graphic of north Mid-Atlantic snowdepth
CLICK HERE for general USA snowdepth (Air Force)
CLICK for 1-day snow accumulation for Virginia  NC   WV
CLICK for snowdepth for Virginia  NC  WV
CLICK for month to date snowfall for VIRGINIA
CLICK for season to date snowfall for VIRGINIA

DICLAIMER AND COMMENT: This page is just for fun, and my forecast, may vary from the National Weather Service by quite a bit a times. There is no liability assumed for anything resulting from this page. Do not use this page to plan anything. Refer to official National Weather Service forecasts for responsible action. I studied some meteorology at The Florida State University School of Meteorology and do study various models and internal weather service discussions, and was fully trained in surface weather observation as an ASOS augmenter in preparation for working at a surface weather station. In any case, any forecast on this page which is more than 8-12 hours old should be disregarded as out-of-date. If you have any comments, leave me e-mail.

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