WALLY'S WINTER WEATHER PAGE 2018-19

CLICK HERE for official (National Weather Service) forecast.

March 23, 2018 - 10:30 a.m.

CHANCE OF SNOW:

Other Winter Precip (Ice)

0%
TODAY-TONIGHT
0%
TODAY-TONIGHT
0%
TOMORROW
0%
TOMORROW
0%
48-72 Hrs.   
0%
48-72 Hrs.
0%
3-5 Days 
0%
3-5 Days
0%
6-10 Days   
0%
6-10 Days
CHANCE OF ANY SNOW IN
THE NEXT TWO WEEKS
0%

S = snow showers    F = snow flurries

WINTER HAS DEPARTED

As you can tell, our March is quite tame, though March winds were up some yesterday.

Looking at the 15 day snow prog, you can see the snow has really shifted quite far north by now.

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Nothing is expected into April (at least first week), and even then for a while.
This could be the first snowless March in memory. Interestingly Siberia and far northwest Canada were very unusually mild this winter. But, southern South America, most of Africa and the middle east were way below normal. And, the northen plains were in one of the worst deep freezes on record with temps in the -10 to -40 degrees for months. Global temp anomaly is currently running about .42 C degrees above normal, not nearly the 1.5+ we had back in 2012.

So enjoy the spring-like weather. A cool rain occurs Mon.-Tues. with some colder temps, but then, warmth will march on (no pun intended).

Check back!


ABOUT THIS (BUSTED) WINTER:

It is still the most remarkable thing I've seen in all my years of weather watching that this winter we've have had the most extreme example of a La Nina weather pattern (frigid northern plains, warmer and thus rainy for the southeast and VA) all during an actual (Modoki) El Nino winter (which SHOULD bring more snows for VA).
It is literally opposite of expectation and of all usual norms. But, perhaps a lot of the explanation is that many "oscillations" are in the wrong mode for snow for us. This includes the AO, NAO, and PNA (see bottom of page for definitions), as well as the MJO was strangly extreme in "warm" modes, and strangely stuck in the wrong mode. There is a lesser known oscillation called the TNH (tropical northern hemisphere) connection that has been "positive" which also helps kill winter here. To have ALL wrong, is rare and downright freaky and to last so long that way. Usually, it CHANGES over months. It's like flipping a coin and getting heads 8 times in a row, each month. It can happen, but unexpectedly and extremely rarely. So, that is what it took to "surprise" me this winter, and thus my forecast for this season didn't turn out (one miss in 15 years). The one big Dec. storm, 15", was before the strange setup began, and thus, it seemed to be a harbinger of the winter. We really SHOULD have gotten 50+" had things held and not ALL FLIPPED (but would you have enjoyed 10-18" each month?)

I've never shown a timeline for the AO ad NAO. See both have been basically RED lately (at bottom), meaning positive and anti-cold/snow, for a LONG time, some even for years, which explains our mild, less snowy winters for the last few years.

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Boy, that is a huge monster READ spike at the end (2018-2019 area, that almost went off the chart). THAT ... hurt our chances for a real winter, big time. You may also notice the big blue "drop" negative for 2010, the winter we had 40" in December alone.

Check back!

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BTW - My newest article in the Roanoke Times op-ed section can be found here:
https://www.roanoke.com/opinion/commentary/mayo-trouble-for-climate-alarmists-are-we-on-the-same/article_09f47341-4b17-5a06-80bc-cbfddaf9495a.html

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This forecast is given as is ... with no warranty of any kind. It is for entertainment purposes only. Any action regarding life or property should be contingent on the official forecast of the National Weather Service, an agency of the U.S. Government. Only the National Weather Service is the source of official forecasts ... not the Weather Channel, Accuweather, Weatherbug, WSI [which many TV stations use] or any other private group.

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CLIMATE NOTE - Kinda for fun. Just givin' some facts.

New update coming.

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You can send any comments to wmayo444@cox.net or see me!

 
*Models consulted, sometimes used as abbreviated:
GFS -  Global Forecast System - Main US-ran global model - longest range (to 16 days). Recently updated with much higher resolution.
NAM + Parallel NAM -  North America Mesoscale - Regional, not global model.
NAM/WRF + Parallel - High res model (parallel is even higher res)
ECMWF - European model, including ensembles (EPS) and weeklies, etc., 
UKMET - British model
NAVGEM - New Navy model (replaced NOGAPS, older one)
RAP - Rapid Refresh Model (short term run hourly, covers up to 21 hours now)
HRRR + experimental HRRRX - High Res Rapid Refresh (very high zoom, updated every hour, also for limited number of hours projection)
DGEX - an acronym for the Downscaled GFS with Eta Extension.  DGEX has been developed as an interim solution to providing high-resolution forecast guidance for populating the digital forecast database at extended forecast projections.  It is produced by running the full 12-km, 60 level, Eta model from forecast hour 78 to forecast hour 192 using lateral boundary conditions
Canadian GEM and RGEM - Global and regional models. Plus CanSIPs monthlies.
Canadian  HRDPS - very local high res model
SREF - Short Range Ensembles
NDFD - National Digital Forecat Database
FIM9 - New experimental US model using hex high res grid. Supposed to replace the GFS eventually.
There are other models such as the Brazilian, German, French, and Japanese (JMA)
I also consult CFSv2 (Climate Forecasting System) for long range
I do not have BUFKIT.
*Other abbreviations used:
WX - Weather
NCEP - National Center for Environmental Prediction (Nat'l Headquarters of the Nat'l Weather Service)
HPC - Hydrological Prediction Center (National prediction office of NWS)
CONUS - Continental US
PCPN - Precipitation
SYS - System
NE - northeast, SE - southeast, NNW north-north-west, etc.
NAO - North Atlantic Oscillation (negative suggests cold east US)
AO - Arctic Oscillation (negative suggests cold east US)
PNA - Pacific North-Atlantic Oscillation (positive suggests stormier east)
EPO - Eastern Pacific Oscillation
WPO - Western Pacific Oscillation
MJO - Madden-Julian Oscillation (a cycle of precip-temps based on certain trade winds/currents). There are eight phases. Some of the eight may be of different effect, depending on season.
SOI - Southern Oscillation Index
QBO - Quasi-Biennial Oscillation

GENERAL CURRENT SNOWFALL MAPS:
CLICK HERE for graphic of north Mid-Atlantic snowdepth
CLICK HERE for general USA snowdepth (Air Force)
CLICK for 1-day snow accumulation for Virginia  NC   WV
CLICK for snowdepth for Virginia  NC  WV
CLICK for month to date snowfall for VIRGINIA
CLICK for season to date snowfall for VIRGINIA

DICLAIMER AND COMMENT: This page is just for fun, and my forecast, may vary from the National Weather Service by quite a bit a times. There is no liability assumed for anything resulting from this page. Do not use this page to plan anything. Refer to official National Weather Service forecasts for responsible action. I took a number of classes in meteorology at the Florida State University School of Meteorology and do study various models and internal weather service discussions, and was fully trained in surface weather observation as an ASOS augmenter in preparation for working at an FAA surface weather station administered by NOAA. In any case, any forecast on this page which is more than 8-12 hours old should be disregarded as out-of-date. If you have any comments, leave me e-mail.

To e-mail me click button: 1 or email to mayo@weatherroanoke.com

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