WALLY'S WINTER WEATHER PAGE 2016-2017

CLICK HERE for official (National Weather Service) forecast.

Monday - August 7, 2017 -  7:30 pm

Some updating, and a new "Climate Note." Aug. 8
Certain abbreviations are explained at the bottom of page.

SNOW CHANCES:

Other Winter Precip

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TOMORROW
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48-72 Hrs.
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3-5 Days
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6-7 Days 
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CHANCE OF ANY SNOW IN
THE NEXT TWO WEEKS
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S = snow showers    F = snow flurries

AUGUST FORECAST:
Hurricane season is sputtering along with small activity. But, remember, peak is in September (10th).

Quickly and briefly -- August should be rather mild. Cool temps will come in spells, though normal temps will also reign. No drought is in sight, though my grass keeps missing the local showers. Actually, a rather tame August as they go. Anyone remember, the horrible heat waves of the 80s? One year, Little Rock, AR, had 90 straight days of 100+ degrees. If that happened now, the media would be trumpeting climate change. A recent study showed that 90+ degree suumer temps (across the US) have been on the decline for nearly 20 years.

Oh, my op-ed (editorial) in The Roanoke Times came out last Friday. You can see it here:
http://www.roanoke.com/opinion/commentary/mayo-climate-catastrophe-why-are-they-making-it-hard-to/article_624993b0-1e59-5167-8a76-e9a5b42373fc.html


I'll give a September outlook in a week or so.

Check back.

This forecast is given as is ... with no warranty of any kind. It is for entertainment purposes only. Any action regarding life or property should be contingent on the official forecast of the National Weather Service, an agency of the U.S. Government. Only the National Weather Service is the source of official forecasts ... not the Weather Channel, Accuweather, Weatherbug, WSI [which many TV stations use] or any other private group.

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CLIMATE NOTE - Kinda for fun. Just givin' some facts.

PLAYING WITH THE NUMBERS

Australian scientists at the Bureau of Meteorology (BOM) ordered a review of temperature recording instruments after the government agency was caught tampering with temperature logs in several locations. BOM has been put under the microscope before for similar manipulations. The agency was accused in 2014 of tampering with the country’s temperature record to make it appear as if temperatures had warmed over the decades, according to reports in August 2014.

Another NASA scientist is trying to blow the whistle on data manipulation of surface weather temps. More on that later.

A REAL LOOK at global current temp deviation from normal can be seen in this graph (done daily) at Weather Bell Analytics.
The horizontal dotted lines represent .2 degrees. So, the black GLOBAL deviation is currentlyh at +.38 degrees. This is up a little recently, but seems to be headed back down.
This is from pure, unadulterated reports from NOAA. I just read a report/analysis that said that the long period of a lack of a major volcano (we've had lately) would result in +.2 by now anyway. That means excluding "lack of volcano effects" we are really at +.18 above normal, and that's after a record strong/warm El-Nino, which could account for the rest.

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Meanwhile, one report I missed in April of this year (first part of article):

Sea ice off Newfoundland thickest ever yet another polar bear comes ashore

By Dr. Susan Crockford:

Amid reports that ice conditions between Newfoundland and southern Labrador are the worst in living memory, another polar bear was reported ashore in the area — just after biologist Andrew Derocher explained to the CBC that bears only come on land when sea ice conditions “fail.”

Strait-of-belle-isle pack ice_April 19 2017_Nordik Relais

“Ice too thick for coast guard’s heavy icebreaker” said a 20 April 2017 CBC report on the state of ice in the Strait of Belle Isle. The pack is thick first year ice (four feet thick or more in places) and embedded with icebergs of much older, thicker ice. The ice packed along the northern shore of Newfoundland is hampering fishermen from getting out to sea and is not expected to clear until mid-May.

I checked latest anomalies, and sure enough, the area around Greenland STILL shows way-below normal sea temps and higher than normal ice.
The Northwest Passage near Alaska/Russia is warmer with a little less ice -- which goes to show that different areas show difference variations at one point in time. Of course, CNN and CBS went crazy over the "less" ice, but did not mention the "more ice" place(s) as proof of change.

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You can send any comments to wmayo444@cox.net or see me!

 
*Models consulted, sometimes used as abbreviated:
GFS -  Global Forecast System - Main US-ran global model - longest range (to 16 days). Recently updated with much higher resolution.
NAM + Parallel NAM -  North America Mesoscale - Regional, not global model.
NAM/WRF + Parallel - High res model (parallel is even higher res)
ECMWF - European model, including ensembles (EPS) and weeklies, etc., 
UKMET - British model
NAVGEM - New Navy model (replaced NOGAPS, older one)
RAP - Rapid Refresh Model (short term run hourly, covers up to 21 hours now)
HRRR + experimental HRRRX - High Res Rapid Refresh (very high zoom, updated every hour, also for limited number of hours projection)
DGEX - an acronym for the Downscaled GFS with Eta Extension.  DGEX has been developed as an interim solution to providing high-resolution forecast guidance for populating the digital forecast database at extended forecast projections.  It is produced by running the full 12-km, 60 level, Eta model from forecast hour 78 to forecast hour 192 using lateral boundary conditions
Canadian GEM and RGEM - Global and regional models. Plus CanSIPs monthlies.
Canadian  HRDPS - very local high res model
SREF - Short Range Ensembles
NDFD - National Digital Forecat Database
FIM9 - New experimental US model using hex high res grid. Supposed to replace the GFS eventually.
There are other models such as the Brazilian, German, French, and Japanese (JMA)
I also consult CFSv2 (Climate Forecasting System) for long range
I do not have BUFKIT.
*Other abbreviations used:
WX - Weather
NCEP - National Center for Environmental Prediction (Nat'l Headquarters of the Nat'l Weather Service)
HPC - Hydrological Prediction Center (National prediction office of NWS)
CONUS - Continental US
PCPN - Precipitation
SYS - System
NE - northeast, SE - southeast, NNW north-north-west, etc.
NAO - North Atlantic Oscillation (negative suggests cold east US)
AO - Arctic Oscillation (negative suggests cold east US)
PNA - Pacific North-Atlantic Oscillation (positive suggests stormier east)
EPO - Eastern Pacific Oscillation
WPO - Western Pacific Oscillation
MJO - Madden-Julian Oscillation (a cycle of precip-temps based on certain trade winds/currents). There are eight phases. Some of the eight may be of different effect, depending on season.
SOI - Southern Oscillation Index
QBO - Quasi-Biennial Oscillation

GENERAL CURRENT SNOWFALL MAPS:
CLICK HERE for graphic of north Mid-Atlantic snowdepth
CLICK HERE for general USA snowdepth (Air Force)
CLICK for 1-day snow accumulation for Virginia  NC   WV
CLICK for snowdepth for Virginia  NC  WV
CLICK for month to date snowfall for VIRGINIA
CLICK for season to date snowfall for VIRGINIA

DICLAIMER AND COMMENT: This page is just for fun, and my forecast, may vary from the National Weather Service by quite a bit a times. There is no liability assumed for anything resulting from this page. Do not use this page to plan anything. Refer to official National Weather Service forecasts for responsible action. I studied some meteorology at The Florida State University School of Meteorology and do study various models and internal weather service discussions, and was fully trained in surface weather observation as an ASOS augmenter in preparation for working at a surface weather station. In any case, any forecast on this page which is more than 8-12 hours old should be disregarded as out-of-date. If you have any comments, leave me e-mail.

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