WALLY'S WINTER WEATHER PAGE 2020-21

CLICK HERE for official (National Weather Service) forecast.

Thursday, March 23, 2021 - 5:00 p.m.

Next update: Any major or tropical threat
CHANCE OF SNOW:

Other Winter Precip (Ice)

0%
TODAY-TONIGHT
0%
TODAY-TONIGHT
0%
TOMORROW
0%
TOMORROW
0%
48-72 Hrs.
0%
48-72 Hrs.
0%
3-5 Days  
0%
3-5 Days
10%
6-10 Days   
0%
6-10 Days
CHANCE OF ANY SNOW IN
THE NEXT TWO WEEKS
10%

S = snow showers    F = snow flurries   W = significant wind event

WINTER ENDING AS IT BEGAN

Well, this may be the last post for this winter season. Unless a strong and clear winter threat appears, we'll only post for any tropical threat to our area.

The pattern has reverted very well to how most of the winter acted during early and mid winter. The map below (for snow total to April 9) reflects how the GFS often projected snow this winter. Much to the west, and a wall near us where no snow penetrates. Now, I don't even believe this snow projection, for it seems way too bold for even early April. But, someone will get some snow by April 15. But, it will likely be either west and/or in the mountains or highly elevated areas, including WV and NC.

1

This winter was marked with a few very small snow events in the range of 1-2", plus one significant snow of about 5-6" early on. Airport total is 10.3, while my location saw 15.1/4" of the white stuff. That's below the average of 18", but it's way ahead of last year at this point with a very paltry 1.6" at the airport!!! That was the lowest since 1937 of the last century!

Yes, we've not had a major snow year for at least 5 years or so. Interestingly, the western U.S. has been plastered with snow, while the east has basked. Only the Texas-centered frigid event kept things cold for a week or so even this far east.

This has been the cloudiest fall and winter I can remember. Being at the lee of the mountains means we often get clear skies more often. Part of this is due to the prevailing southerly (warm!) upper and surface winds. But, a significant part is due to the low solar cycle (sunspot count is few or often zero). As a result, the increase in cosmic radiation increases particulates that coalesce moisture and rain. The result also cools the planet to some degree. Our CDAS global temp anomaly has shrunk from near .70 degree to .19 degree C. And, the effect of the minimum is just getting started.

The La-Nina setup (current off S. America) which tends to mean less snow for us, is dying. And, we may be more "neutral" next year (between La Nina and El Nino), which could mean a chance for more snow than normal. But that may need to be updated.

I was wrong about February being warmer than normal (remember the TX deep freeze). Nobody could foresee the stratospheric collapse of cold air (at the north pole) that happened about then. I was also wrong about March being the best chance for snow. The general pattern of QBO, La Nina, and some other water currents was just to strong, and brough southern air aloft over us too much in March. Let's just say that this year, my forecasts out to 15 days was much better than my seasonal forecasts (which are greatly more challenging).

Check back when crazy weather threatens!

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This forecast is given as is ... with no warranty of any kind. It is for entertainment purposes only. Any action regarding life or property should be contingent on the official forecast of the National Weather Service, an agency of the U.S. Government. Only the National Weather Service is the source of official forecasts ... not the Weather Channel, Accuweather, Weatherbug, WSI [which many TV stations use] or any other private group.

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CLIMATE NOTE - Kinda for fun. Just givin' some facts.  (New article coming shortly)

Could we possibly be heading into a cold period on earth?

There are a number of good mainline scientists which have become convinced that we could be heading toward a cold period such as the Maunder Minimum--a time when temps were much colder. Many unusual observations such as the River Thames in London freezing solid, and some of the U.S. northern rivers did the same thing. A warming arctic, with significant melting, can actually trigger an ice age. It has happened before, and computer modelling shows this.

For now, check out this article as it has some good detail on this. I've seen supporting materials, publications, and articles that support this, from some excellent scientists. I'll give more comments on this soon.

https://electroverse.net/the-arctics-ticking-climate-bomb-little-ice-age-imminent/

Wally

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You can send any comments to wmayo444@cox.net or see me!

 
*Models consulted, sometimes used as abbreviated:
GFS -  Global Forecast System - Main US-ran global model - longest range (to 16 days). Recently updated with much higher resolution.
NAM - Lower (12km ) and Higher Resolution (3km) -  North America Mesoscale - "Regional"-US, not global model.
WRF/ARW and WRF/NMMB (3 km res) - Nested models, high res
ECMWF - European model, including ensembles (EPS) and weeklies, etc., 
UKMET - British model - to 144 hrs. available to the public
NAVGEM - New Navy model (replaced NOGAPS, older one)
JMA - Japanese Model
ICON - Earth System Model (Max Plank Institute) - German, to 180 hrs.
RAP - Rapid Refresh Model (short term run hourly, covers up to 21 hours now)
HRRR3 (3km) and HRRR-15 minute - all High Resolution Rapid Refresh models
Canadian GEM - Global (240 hrs)
Canadian RGEM - Regional model, higher res, to 84 hrs.
Canadian  RDPS - very local high res model (2.5 km)

SREF - Short Range Ensemble Forecast (several of them)
NDFD - National Digital Forecat Database
National model blend
There are other models such as the Brazilian, German, French, and Japanese (JMA)
I also consult CFSv2 (Climate Forecasting System), GEFS Mean, Canadian Mean, ECMWF long range runs (Weeklies and Contol), and CMC Extended, etc. for long range
I do not have BUFKIT.
*Other abbreviations used:
WX - Weather
NCEP - National Center for Environmental Prediction (Nat'l Headquarters of the Nat'l Weather Service)
HPC - Hydrological Prediction Center (National prediction office of NWS)
CONUS - Continental US
PCPN - Precipitation
SYS - System
NE - northeast, SE - southeast, NNW north-north-west, etc.
Various oceanic and atmospheric osciallations:
NAO - North Atlantic Oscillation (negative suggests cold east US)
AO - Arctic Oscillation (negative suggests cold east US)
PNA - Pacific North-Atlantic Oscillation (positive suggests stormier east)
AMO - Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation
EPO - Eastern Pacific Oscillation
WPO - Western Pacific Oscillation
PDO - Pacific Decadal Osciallation
MJO - Madden-Julian Oscillation (a cycle of precip-temps based on certain precip and flow patterns in Pacific). There are eight phases, each having specific bearing on our WX)
SOI - Southern Oscillation Index
QBO - Quasi-Biennial Oscillation

GENERAL CURRENT SNOWFALL MAPS: (Will be updated soon)
CLICK HERE for graphic of north Mid-Atlantic snowdepth
CLICK HERE for general USA snowdepth (Air Force)
CLICK for 1-day snow accumulation for Virginia  NC   WV
CLICK for snowdepth for Virginia  NC  WV
CLICK for month to date snowfall for VIRGINIA
CLICK for season to date snowfall for VIRGINIA

DICLAIMER AND COMMENT: This page is just for fun, and my forecast, may vary from the National Weather Service by quite a bit a times. There is no liability assumed for anything resulting from this page. Do not use this page to plan anything. Refer to official National Weather Service forecasts for responsible action. I took a number of classes in meteorology at the Florida State University School of Meteorology and do study various models and internal weather service discussions, and was fully trained in surface weather observation as an ASOS augmenter in preparation for working at an FAA surface weather station administered by NOAA. In any case, any forecast on this page which is more than 8-12 hours old should be disregarded as out-of-date. If you have any comments, leave me e-mail.

To e-mail me click button: 1 or email to mayo@weatherroanoke.com

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